In the U.S. media, we always hear about President Bush's approval rating, which is at 39% right now. But what is our leader's approval rating? Try a shade below 20%, or at least that's what a first of its kind poll says.
SPEAR today released the findings of what it calls a national scientific opinion poll and it's full of bad news for the Musa administration. In the past, polls, particularly political ones, have never been conducted in Belize. But last week, interviewers from the Belize Studies Resource Centre at Saint John's College polled 388 participants from all 6 districts.
Pollsters asked them 5 questions: first, do you approve of the way the Prime Minister is leading the country. Second, do you think he should call early elections? Third, if early elections were called, would Belizeans vote for a third party? Fourth, would they vote for the PUP? And fifth, would they vote for the UDP?
Well, first, according to the poll:
- The Prime Minister's approval rating is a dismal 19.8%.
- 71.6% of those polled say he should call an early election.
- 49% of those polled would vote for a third party.
- 34.5% would re-elect a PUP government
- and 65.7% would vote for the UDP.
As we said, that is from a sample of 388 persons, all who had telephones and were polled last week during daylight hours. The participants were divided by districts in numbers proportional to the population. For example, in Corozal, home to 11% of the national population, 41 persons, 11% of the total number polled, were contacted. Both urban and rural areas were polled, and at more or less the same rate, both agreed that they did not approve of, and would not vote for the PUP government.
According to the poll, the government enjoyed greatest support - but still less than 50% in Toledo and Corozal. More women than men were polled and, while both equally disapproved of the Prime Minister's performance, more women wanted early elections. In terms of age, those between 18 and 23 gave the Prime Minister the lowest approval rating. Interestingly, the poll shows that the same age group is least likely to vote for the UDP. According to the poll, those between 42 to 47 years old are most comfortable with the UDP.
Those are just some of the findings which are sure to generate a great deal of discussion and controversy. And the organization at the middle of it is SPEAR. Today its director Gus Pererra, himself a former PUP city councilor, told us why his organization felt it was important to have the poll.
Gus Pererra, SPEAR
"Since August last year there has been a series of, I guess everyone knows, public outcry, protest, and there's been a lot of speculation as to where the country is headed: who's right, who's wrong. And so amidst all the issues that are being discussed among the different media, we just thought it would be appropriate to try and find the truth as to really what is it that the people are thinking in terms of: on the one hand you have a general perception that people are dissatisfied but yet they feel that they're resigned to the situation. And then on the other hand you have the government saying they have a mandate, they feel empowered to do what they are doing. So we just decided that maybe in-between two positions we might be able to find some truth. And we did this survey under the theme, The Voices of the People, because we feel maybe we could touch the pulse of the people to find out really what they are thinking."
Jules Vasquez,
How did you feel when you saw the results?
Gus Pererra,
"I was a little bit surprised on the extremes, in terms of how strongly people felt about, for example things like leadership and the early elections. I thought it would have been a little bit more not balanced, but certainly not as extreme as the results have turned out to be."
Jules Vasquez,
You realize that this will be rather loudly and widely rejected by the PUP government and party, and that you are sort of inviting a hailstorm of criticism, personal attacks, and all sort of things by saying that by scientific evidence the PUP is grossly unpopular?
Gus Pererra,
"I think Jules that amidst a lot of speculation, amidst a lot of confusion, the truth is the truth. And if we as a research and educational organization can be a vehicle to bring some kind of focus to the reality that is happening out there, if it means that we will be criticized or challenged, then we have to deal with that."
Jules Vasquez,
A criticism that will be made up front is that one of the key participants from Belize Studies Resource Center (BSRC) is Yasmine Andrews and she is a former UDP aspirant and a currently very active member of the UDP.
Gus Pererra,
"Well we worked with the BSRC. Yasmine Andrews is a professional that works for the BSRC or the SJC Junior College Resource Center. We tapped into the technical expertise that that Resource Center offered to us in complementing our concepts and our design for the poll to help to bring us to the point where we are at. So we really worked with the BSRC, not necessarily Yasmine Andrews, because we also worked with Mr. Andrew Lopez who is one of the coordinators there too who was also involved in the process."
SPEAR says that regardless of how this is received, it will continue to conduct polls.
7NEWS produced for broadcast by News Director Jules Vasquez
Edited and Prepared for the internet by Keith Swift
