The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is up 5.9%, inflation increased by 3 points, and unemployment is basically unchanged. That is a snapshot of how Belize's economy performed in the first four months of this year.
In an encouraging first, the first quarter statistics were presented by the Central Statistical Office at a Data Dissemination and Award Ceremony this morning at the Biltmore Hotel. For GDP fishing, utilities, and government services all recorded negative growth. Construction, taxes on products, which includes the sales and excise taxes, and manufacturing all recorded significant growth. Chief Statistician Glenn Avilez says that while GDP is showing positive growth, it gives no indication of what will follow in the proceeding months.
Glenn Avilez, Chief Statistician
"In the 1st quarter of this year we have estimated that GDP growth was 5.9%. However we are not at liberty to say what will happen for the rest of the year. It doesn't really mean anything because we're only looking at one quarter. There was the first quarter of 2002, I think it was, where there was growth of over 10.5% in the first quarter and declined in the other three quarters such that for the entire year we were hardly over 1%. So we should not read too much into the first quarter of the year."
And while GDP is up, so is inflation which is a measure of increasing prices and higher cost of living. Since 2001 Belize's inflation has been on a steady increase. Last year it was 3.1 and the average for this year so far is already 3.0. Avilez says this is the worst possible news for consumers. But the news isn't all bad. Belize's population is rapidly approaching the 300,000 mark as mid-year estimates now put it at 291,800. And in the first quarter, unemployment dropped a modest 0.6 of a percentage point.
Avilez says many factors affect the unemployment rate.
Glenn Avilez,
"For April, and I emphasize April, we had 12,186 persons unemployed which is slightly down from last year. So 12,000 is a lot of people. Enough to make a district."
Keith Swift,
And those are just the people looking for jobs?
Glenn Avilez,
"No it includes persons who are looking as well as persons who are not looking for a job. As you will notice from the figures presented, the rate of inflation has been increasing from just over 1% to now over 3% and there's a good possibility that it could jump the 4% bar in 2005. So certainly as consumers we are faced with higher prices but more than that, it is the rate at which the prices are increasing."
Keith Swift,
So for people at home, inflation is the reason why when you go to the store you find out the $50 doesn't stretch as much as it used to before. That is what inflation boils down to?
Glenn Avilez,
"That's exactly right Keith. It merely has a reflection on your purchasing power so if you had $100 as an income last year and then your boss did not give you any increase and you still have that $100 to deal with in 2005, it means that with prices going up - you are 3% worst off than you were last year.
3.0 will refer to prices. The 5.9 takes out all the effects of prices so what we are comparing is the quantity of goods and services that were produced last year. So yes we are producing more but in terms of value, they are less. As you know our agriculture produce that are exported, they are suffering from low international prices. Shrimp which had turned out to be a very large export earner is receiving far less revenues in terms of compared to previous years.
We have every confidence that what we have presented is to the best of ability and if the public has any doubt in what we are doing then they can feel free to check with us. We have had close contact with the IMF and other international organizations who have scrutinized our work and I can say with confidence that things have improved tremendously."
If you want to view the statistics yourself on the Central Statistical Office's Website.
