Opinion polls - they are the lifeblood of the campaign cycle in the United States. But in Belize, polls are a relatively new thing. Since late 2005, SPEAR - the Society for the Promotion of Education and Research has conducted 5 polls. Today they released the findings of their sixth - and perhaps the most sensational - as it forecasts the outcome of the general election which is two weeks away. The background is this: between January 18th and 21st 2008 - 417 registered voters across the country were called on their home telephones and asked key questions about the general election. The responses leave more questions than answers - but we still looked for meaning.
Jules Vasquez Reporting,
The polls asked respondents 6 questions - if they will vote, how they rate the government's performance, who they're gonna vote for, why they're gonna vote that way, how is their quality of life, and the optimism of the voters about an election. First the expected voter turnout is high 87.3%, and it is most so in Orange Walk and Cayo, lowest in the Toledo and Belize districts. And then respondents were asked to rate the performance of the government in the past 5 years.
Gus Perrera,
"We gave five possible answers a, excellent; b, very good; c, good; d, poor; and f, very poor."
Those judging the government's performance as poor and very poor had the majority -and government's final grade - not failing - but poor a - solid "D." And then the big question - respondents were asked who they will vote for. 17.5% said the PUP, 25.7% said the UDP, 4.6% said they were with independent parties, while the majority were undeclared: 27% said they were undecided, while 25% said they would keep it confidential.
In two districts, the poll shows the PUP actually ahead of the UDP: by 7 points in Toledo and by double digits - 12 points - in Corozal. The PUP trails in all other districts, by the largest margin in Stann Creek where it is down 25 points, and 18 points in Cayo. And on what are voters basing their choices on who to vote for? Well 52.8% said it's the issues and 20% said it's the candidate while 12% said its party loyalty. Only 1.9% said they were influenced by money. And those issues played the largest role in the Belize, Cayo and Orange Walk Districts.
Pollsters also asked respondents if their quality of life increased in the last 10 years - and that was split right down the middle. And finally, they were asked if they were optimistic about the outcome of the elections. 68% said yes, which is an interesting answer.
Gus Perrera,
"If you 27% saying they are undecided and then 25% saying it is confidential but 70% or 68% are optimistic about the results its really telling you, 'I
really don't want to talk about how I will vote but I know.'"
And to read results from a poll that leaves more voters undeclared than declared SPEAR's analysts created possible scenarios. One reads into the answer that says confidential: that would put the UDP ahead 39% to 27%. Another scenario factors in confidential and undecided respondents and shows the UDP with 54% to the PUP's 37%. Interesting scenarios and they arrived at it using some statistical science - that's so high tech they explained that breaking it down for us would be futile.
Henry Gordon,
"We're looking at a scientific poll. There are some mathematical formulas that are used and to attempt to go into that, just for public consumption, we believe it would not serve a useful purpose."
But science or not, the PUP - which has been behind in every SPEAR poll is bound to criticize this one as well. But SPEAR says it has its track record to boats of - and that showed its poll as being dead on in the 2006 municipal elections.
Gus Perrera,
"During that election I think we had projected that the UDP would have gotten 65% of the votes and the PUP would have gotten, I think, 35%. The
eventual outcome was that the UDP got, I think, sixty-two point something percent and the PUP got 34.5%. Where the PUP is concerned from the very first poll that we did, they have been dismissive of the polls. I think the first poll they referred to it as a bogus poll until the municipal elections proved it to be solid gold. We believe that this a test of credibility now between our poll and the test of credibility of the PUP leadership and I think the results on election day is going to really speak noh, to that noh."
And that begs the question: by publicizing this now is SPEAR trying to influence the election against the PUP?
Gus Perrera,
"Are we trying to influence of the elections, the answer to that is definitely not. What we are trying to do is influence the political discourse during this election campaign period. The political ads are not really saying anything about real governance, for the most part. I sit down and watch some of those ads and I say these are an insult to the intelligence of the Belizean people. The Belizean electorate is a lot more mature, a lot more intelligent than some might think."
And judging by the 52% who kept their political cards close to their chest, a lot more secretive as well.
Gus Perrera,
"This is an interesting really response because if you go back to when you ask people how they incline to vote, those who said that it is confidential and those who say they are undecided, it would appear in their minds perhaps decided as reflected in their optimism. People, I think generally have a sense of what the eventual outcome is going to be."
Of course those cagey responses came from registered voters - all with listed landline numbers, no cell phones were included.
Gus Perrera,
"We accept that one of the constraints or weakness with using the telephone survey is that yes, you will not reach all the rural or as broad a rural population as you would want. Nevertheless because the frame and the methodology is sound, the reliability of the results to a certain extent its good."
The margin of error on the poll is plus or minus 5%.
