For the last few weeks, the redistricting Taskforce has often been on the news. You've heard how the Leader of the Opposition, "Shyne" Barrow, alleged that gerrymandering attempts are afoot and that members of the ruling government are attempting to gain some political advantage out of the process.
It's vital because Belize has not had a re-drafting of its electoral maps in over 18 years. So our Daniel Ortiz has been on an intensive investigation, spanning several weeks, to determine the consequence of that extreme lapse of constitutional responsibility.
And he found that for the last fourteen years, Belize's four recent general elections have not been truly democratic in the way it values all registered electors. The imbalance has created "most valuable voters" in the smaller constituencies and "least valuable voters" in the larger ones.
In the first of a 2-part special report, we take a closer look at the country's redistricting problems, which continue to worsen as the population grows. With help from data experts at Total Business Solutions Limited, we've put together this story:
Full Story Video: Redistricting & Democracy.
In the Belize Constitution, under Section 90. -(1) it reads, "The Elections and Boundaries Commission shall, after considering the distribution of the population throughout Belize, make proposals from time to time for dividing Belize into electoral divisions in such a way that (a) each electoral division shall have as nearly as may be an equal number of persons eligible to vote."
This simply means that each of the 31 electoral divisions should have an equal number of registered electors, and if they don't, the Elections and Boundaries Commission should rectify that ASAP.
E. Andrew Marshalleck, SC - President, Bar Association of Belize
"In our last redistricting exercise in the report for 2004, which was done by the Commission. I just read it. It was Mr. Gadsby Ramos, Mr. Elston Kaseke, and Mr. Armin Cansino, one of the first recommendations they made right off the top was that the tolerance should be 15% in either direction, which means the number of voters in each constituency should not be more 15% of the total number of electors divided by 31, and or [15%] less than-."
Daniel Ortiz
"The total number divided by 31."
E. Andrew Marshalleck, SC
"Correct."
Daniel Ortiz
"But, sir, we are obviously not following that best practice, that advice, when we're allowing the deviations to get to 60%, plus or minus."
E. Andrew Marshalleck, SC
"It's severely malapportioned, and it approaches the point where arguments can seriously be made that elections are not democratic."
The Belize Peace Movement has fought to force the Elections and Boundaries Commission to correct this imbalance.
The most significant document coming out of that skirmish has been the 2020 report from Court Expert Mr. Sean P. Trende. In it, he outlines how far from an equal weight of each vote Belize's electoral divisions have been allowed to deviate.
In paragraph 9 of his report, Trende tells the court that according to his research on democracies around the world, "Overall, most countries seem to employ an allowable deviation threshold of between 10% and 15%."
He goes on to deliver a spicy comment in Paragraph 10, saying, "The degree of malapportionment present in Belize today far exceeds any threshold suggested in other countries or by international organizations.
Using the 10% deviation standard suggested by international organizations, only four of Belize's current electoral divisions are not severely malapportioned.
Having reviewed the appropriate data in Belize, I conclude that passive malapportionment in Belize is extreme under any existing standard
On page 31, the court expert produces a table to demonstrate just how extreme the deviations from the ideal are.
In paragraph 112, the court expert says, "Overall, the deviations range from 59.6% in Stann Creek west to -68.6% in Fort George, an overall deviation of 128.1% is far beyond what is typically tolerated in a Western Democracy."
Put differently, the vote of an elector in Fort George counts FIVE times as much in the House of Representatives as the vote of an elector in Stann Creek West."
For a better look at the context, I thought it more interesting and useful to apply the court expert's reasoning to some of the biggest elections in recent memory.
So let's go back in time to one of the major milestones in Belize's Democracy: 2008.
I pulled up the detailed reports on each General Elections, which were published by the staff of the Elections and Boundaries Department on their website.
Replicating the malapportionment table in Mr. Sean P Trende's Report, those four elections start to take shape like this.
Mr. Trende says that the international best practice is to prevent electoral divisions from becoming more than 10% too big or 10% too small.
In this format, it's a huge tangle of numbers that don't afford any helpful analysis.
So, we got assistance for visualization from the data solutions experts at Total Business Solutions Limited (TBSL).
With a bit of cutting-edge technology, they call ArcGIS Dashboard, this messy excel spreadsheet evolves into...
The following graphics for meaningful insights. So, let's apply the court expert's reasoning, for example, to the 2008 elections.
This was the moment when the Right Honorable Dean Barrow first ascended to the office of the Prime Minister, the highest elected office in the land, and the mountaintop for all politicians who dare to dream that big.
Jules Vasquez,
"Sir, at this point, one has to ask how does it feel?"
Dean Barrow - 1st Time Prime Minister
"It feels very good, of course, very, very good. I am extremely grateful."
That election was also the final exam for the Musa Administration, and the People of Belize resoundingly rejected the Incumbent, Prime Minister Said Musa, and his PUP team. Voters also retired a few senior politicians: chief among them probably being the Mighty Ralph Fonseca.
But, by using the court expert's assessment tools and the graph to the far right of the ArcGIS Dashboard from TBSL, only 11 of the 31 constituencies are obeying the constitution on an equal number of votes. The other 20 are far outside of that best practice of Plus or Minus 10% deviation.
The most flagrant offenders are Stann Creek West, which was 40% too big, and Fort George, which was 37% too small, for an overall deviation of 77%.
Working from the constituencies that are too small, the data indicates that the Belize City divisions of Fort George, Albert, Mesopotamia, Pickstock, Freetown, Collet, Queen Square, and Port Loyola were all too small, and the democratic weighting of those votes was higher than the out-district constituencies.
Stann Creek west, Orange Walk North, Cayo Central, Belmopan, Orange Walk South, Toledo East, Orange Walk East, Cayo West, Toledo West, and Corozal South East are all the constituencies that were too big. The value of a vote in these constituencies was lower than the voters from Belize City divisions.
Put another way, the voters in these constituencies were treated to a miscarriage of democracy because their vote did not have equal weight for representation in the National Assembly.
However, one interesting detail was the size of Belize Rural Central, which fit perfectly within the legally allowed deviation at only -0.6%.
Still, Ralph Fonseca's steady decline in popularity allowed a political newcomer, the UDP's Richard Hutchinson, to unseat him in the National Assembly.
posted (February 12, 2008)
Jules Vasquez
"Mr. Hutchinson, you made it."
Hon. Michael Hutchinson
"Yes, I did."
Jules Vasquez,
"How does it feel?"
Hon. Michael Hutchinson,
"I guess it is kicking in now, all the applause and the praises. It is a good feeling."
His unlikely victory a demonstration that even in an equitably constituted division, unthinkable upsets can still happen.
Tune in tomorrow for part two of this report, when you'll see who the "most and least valuable voters" were in the November 2020 General elections when the redistricting issue was live.
