If you watched Uncut last week live from the UB Jaguar Auditorium, you would have seen leading economist Victor Bulmer Thomas. He's written many books including the Economic History of Belize from the 17th century to present.
And yesterday he was the presenter at the University of Belize's Policy Research Institute where he launched a new policy research paper titled "The Belizean Economy in the 21st Century when and Why Belize Fell Behind and What to do About It."
Now, economics may not interest most of us - but Bulmer Thomas explained that for the past 20 years right up to the present Belize's economy has been falling behind its neighbors and peer nations. Jules Vasquez looked at some of his findings:
We are accustomed to hearing the regular boasts about impressive GDP growth and a robust, expanding economy:
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John Briceno, Prime Minister
"In 2024, according to the recently published IMF data. The IMF, not us. Belize had the highest GDP growth rate in the Western Hemisphere at 8.2%. Second only to the oil exporting nation of Guyana."
But, In his research paper, Victor Bulmer Thomas argues that it's all more or less, a mirage. Belize's economy has been stagnant for about 20 years he argues. And more than that, it's been getting poorer in comparison to its regional peers:
Dr Victor Bulmer Thomas, Professor Emeritus, LSE
"But belize has effectively been falling in relative terms - and as we'll see in a minute, its position both within the Caribbean and within Central America has deteriorated quite seriously."
And he says that all the strong growth of the Briceno years is basically a recovery, soon to be followed by a return to stagnation.
Dr Victor Bulmer Thomas, Professor Emeritus, LSE
"Because what you're looking at here is a recovery and if you look at the prognosis for this year and the next few years, you will see that on any kind of objective measure, the outlook for Belize in terms of the GDP per head is not that brilliant."
He writes, "And yet this impressive performance since 2020, while very welcome, has only brought GDP per head of population in 2024 (after adjusting for inflation) back to where it was in 2007."
GDP per head at constant prices - that's the metric which Bulmer Thomas relies on and it shows a country sinking into poverty amongst its Caribbean peers:
Dr Victor Bulmer Thomas, Professor Emeritus, LSE
"And you will see that there is Belize, second from bottom."
"So only Jamaica and Haiti have a lower Haiti have a lower GDP per head using a three year average and constant prices."
"I was shocked and surprised when I saw that, to be honest. I assumed that Belize would be somewhere in the bottom 10, but I didn't expect to find it third from the bottom."
But it wasn't always that way:
Dr Victor Bulmer Thomas, Professor Emeritus, LSE "So in that, 20 years ago, Belize was ranked 7thy from the bottom. Then 15 years ago, Belize's rank from the bottom was 5th."
And now it is third.
And the deterioration has been the same when compared to Central American nations:
Dr Victor Bulmer Thomas, Professor Emeritus, LSE "So in the case of every single country in Central America, Belize position has deteriorated in terms of GDP per head at constant prices."
Tomorrow, we'll look at another part of his paper.
