Yesterday, the University of Belize issued its poll called the People's Perception on General Elections. 430 people were randomly selected nationwide, with geographical representation from all 6 districts. All respondents were contacted by listed landlines by pollsters from the University of Belize.
It's caused waves in political circles because it shows the slipping further in popularity. Most notably it shows that in Toledo, where 24 people were sampled, the Prime Minister earned less support than both Will Maheia of the PNP and Paul Morgan of the VIP. With a finding like that: which says that PM Musa is running fourth in Toledo and third in Dangriga, this poll had to raise many eyebrows and much adverse comment from the PUP which criticized its methodology and the condemned the personalities behind it.
So today, the woman who devised the science of the poll, and previous polls for SPEAR Yasmin Andrews came forward to defend the poll. She is affiliated with SJC, but assisted UB's Roy Young in coming up with the questions and the methodology. First, she told us what jumped out at her when she saw the results.
Jules Vasquez,
Did anything surprise you or were you generally of the view that it is consistent with previous polls?
Yasmine Andrews,
"I think it is very consistent. I think that the PUP has done very well in another part of the districts and I think surprisingly the UDP has also done well in the southern part of the districts. So for the PUP it has increased and decreased but it has remained between a range of fifteen and twenty. And whereas for the UDP it has been more or less an increase, the last poll showed they had forty four percent and now I think it is fifty five percent."
Jules Vasquez,
Is there any single thing that jumps out at you when reviewing the results of this poll?
Yasmine Andrews,
"Overall what would jump out at me is that the few independent parties that are in, are garnering some support."
And while those results are one thing - the questions and the sampling method are quite another. Today we asked Andrews: how sound is the polling technique.
Yasmine Andrews,
"The methodology is that first of all the University of Belize selected some students on their own for us to train on how to do polling. The sampling, again we used randomized sampling. I worked closely with Dr. Young on the methodology, on the questionnaire. We tested the instrument for reliability and validity."
Jules Vasquez,
Only people who have a certain social or economic standing are able to afford fixed phones or have a lifestyle which affords them the opportunity to have a stable location in which they can install a fixed line.
Yasmine Andrews,
"Absolutely Jules but as in all scientific research, there is also limitations."
Jules Vasquez,
So might not a candidate who believes their popularity was not reflected in our poll, might not such a person say most of the people who support me have prepaid cellulars and prepaid cellulars aren't listed and unless you know the number you can't phone it so then my constituents, my support base, was not reflected in poll?
Yasmine Andrews,
"None at all Jules because what happens when you are selecting a sample you're using a target population which is the majority. In this sense the majority of all Belizeans would have a phone home, not a cell phone. In the end it is valid because your population or your sample is reflective of the entire population so it's not a census where you could include every and anyone. But in the end I think our reliability and our credibility at the Belizean Resource Center has proven over time that our polls are highly accurate."
Jules Vasquez,
We do not have a direct election system so critics argue that you have asked an inapplicable question by asking respondents to say if they'll vote for Dean Barrow, Said Musa, or other leaders as Prime Minister. Why ask such a question?
Yasmine Andrews,
"That is a valid concern Jules because you know we do not have that Republican type of system and you're right, we do not vote for an individual as a Prime Minister. However any individual who is the leader of a party or any party is reflective of who the leader is. So the idea of asking the question was basically just to get a national perception of how people of the leader of all parties. So the question relating again was just a basic leadership question to reflect on the party and the leader. It is not that we would vote for a leader per se and therefore then the population is not related to that person's constituency."
Jules Vasquez,
However there are some people there who it would be a maximum incredible event, even that would not make them Prime Minister such as Will Maheia who only has two candidates presently, Paul Morgan might only have seven presently. Those people, you cannot see what scenario might unfold that could ever in this election make them the Prime Minister.
Yasmine Andrews,
"I absolutely agree Jules but these results are very interesting because if you see it, those three independent candidates, I think they fielded very well."
As regards Andrews comment about fixed lines representing a majority of voters, we're not so sure. What we do know is that between Smart and BTL, they list as many as 140,000 active cell phones countrywide. By comparison, BTL has only 35,000 fixed line subscribers.
