Since August when more than half the cabinet resigned in protest of Ralph Fonseca's management of the country's finances, the worrying state of the economy has been on an often terrifying public display. But through it all, the Prime Minister and new Minister of Finance has been careful never to say that the country is in a financial crisis. But while he isn't saying that locally, that is what he's telling the global financial community.
Speaking with the IMF two weeks ago in Washington, government's money minders made it clear that they need help in a hurry and lots of it. 7 News has obtained cabinet documents which detail technical meetings between a Belizean delegation, led by the Prime Minister and human development CEO Dr. Carla Barnett and an IMF technical team on Monday October fourth in Washington. The meeting sees the Government team asking the IMF to come to Belize, by the last week in October, to start a technical assistance program, focusing on DFC restructuring and debt management. Why the urgency? Well Figures quoted in the meeting show the country's finances in a dire state. First, Dr. Barnett tells the IMF that the recurrent deficit at the end of the current fiscal year is "conservatively estimated" to come in at 41 million Belize dollars. That's a far cry from the figure quoted by then finance minister Fonseca in January, when he projected a 66 million dollar surplus.
To go form that, to an over 40 million dollar deficit is a difference of 100 million dollars, a Steep difference. Barnett also told the IMF that the projected overall deficit was 95 million dollars, 5% of G.D.P., well above the projected 3%. So with those staggering shortfalls, government is asking the IMF to come to the rescue, to assist government's faltering finances with technical assistance and renewed credibility. But the fund's technical experts have their own concerns. Analysts pointed to the fact that debt figures are higher than was projected a few months ago, and they also questioned the 62 million dollars sovereign guarantee on Intelco's debt.
In the end, the IMF team cautioned Belize that the assistance this country is requesting may not be enough and is still not as ambitious as a program recommended by the IMF a few months ago. The prime minister conceded to the experts that there is a justifiable level of skepticism on Belize, but reiterated that the government "needs the IMF's help." With that the IMF will be here from October 25th. to November third. The World Bank wasn't that easy, as director of the Caribbean department Caroline Anstey made it clear that the bank would not return to Belize until it was clear that the country had returned to a path of financial sustainability. And with the imminent arrival of these experts, 7 news is reliably informed that government is moving swiftly to rub out the Ralph Fonseca loyalists form the ministry of finance, DFC and the Central Bank.
Senior persons in government are pushing the prime minister to make changes at the most senior posts in these bodies before the IMF team arrives.