In Belize's political tradition, deputy party leaders are usually seasoned and battle tested politicians who've earned seniority in their party. But for the UDP, eviscerated after the 1998 annihilation at the polls - party building has taken a different form: under Dean Barrow's leadership there have been two first deputies and none of them have had prior success at the polls. The first one, Oscar Ayuso failed in his bid at the polls, and subsequently lost his seat on the party executive. And that's why the pressure is one for Gaspar Vega, the UDP's current first deputy. He's challenging Servulo Baeza, the man considered to be the PUP's weakest candidate in Orange Walk - and for Vega to remain politically viable, he has to win. But perception is one thing - and making it work on the ground is another. We visited Orange Walk North to find out who's got the upper hand.
Jules VasquezReporting,
UDP candidate Gaspar Vega may be a newcomer in Orange Walk North, but in his 2 years in the area, he's become a very familiar presence. He's going up against two term incumbent Servulo Baeza. Both have been campaigning aggressively - and both claim the edge in what has traditionally been a PUP stronghold.
Jules Vasquez,
Will you be able to overcome the significant odds against you being that this is a PUP stronghold?
Gaspar Vega, UDP Candidate - Orange Walk North
"Jules you said it wrongly, it is not considered, it used to be considered a PUP stronghold. i have done enough work Jules in my division that I have no
fear in any village. I am certain that we will deliver each and every single polling station in Orange Walk North."
Jules Vasquez,
Going through Trial Farm you see a lot of UDP signs. Signs don't vote but your opponent feels very confident that if he can bring in Trial Farm and that he feels that he will then be safe.
Servulo Baeza, PUP Candidate - Orange Walk North
"I certainly agree that San Jose and Trial Farm, I would say are the two battlegrounds and that's where the fight is the hardest right now. We have a great amount of support in Trial Farm. On the highway yes you see a lot of signs, you see a lot of flags but if you notice three to four flags are in the same yard. We don't have much of it on the highway. We don't have a lot of support of people on the highway. But if you were to go back into the villages you see a lot of PUP flags. I know that my opponent is worried in Trial Farm."
When we saw Baeza he was in San Jose Village and had a spring in his step after - he says bringing 13 busses to a rally the night before.
Servulo Baeza,
"Certainly we can feel that the momentum is building in our favor. We've been campaigning hard from before Christmas because we knew that the date was
already now coming close. So we were campaigning from before that and certainly being in the division for the past 13 years, it certainly has given me a level of confidence and certainly a level of comfort with my people here."
Gaspar Vega,
"Anyhow it doesn't matter me what he has to say. All he has to worry is when they finish counting the votes, then we will know how many buses he will need."
And Vega gets a lot of his easy confidence in a victory form the fact that he is going up against a candidate whose party is unpopular.
Gaspar Vega,
"It is just because of all the things that the PUP have done and I have been here two and a half years and I have shown the people that if we work united, if we work as good brothers and sisters, we can achieve a lot for our communities."
Jules Vasquez,
How hard is it for you going around, being the incumbent and people are saying it is because of you we have the high taxes and the high costs?
Servulo Baeza,
"Certainly it is harder for us. I think the Opposition has it easy in terms of campaigning because they can always just shift the blame to somebody else, 'oh we're not in government so its the PUP's fault.' But we are dealing with it in terms of speaking to the people, explaining to them and by and large I would say the majority of people understand the issues. But yes in terms of being an incumbent it is more difficult because any little slipup comes back to haunt you. If somebody didn't get a piece of land, they say it was you in government for ten years and I didn't get a piece of land. But we've been dealing with it."
Jules Vasquez,
People blame the Prime Minister. So how much is it for you that you put yourself a little more in the foreground to say, 'Mr. Musa maybe but I did so and so and so for you' - how much is it reestablishing that preeminence of the candidate?
Servulo Baeza,
"Well Jules my campaign here in Orange Walk North, how you want to interpret it or whatever is Gaspar Vega against Servulo Baeza. It is man to man right now."
Man to man, and house to house. Both candidates are campaigning intensively, but when we saw Vega - he was going house to house in Orange Walk Central.
Jules Vasquez,
Are you over confident? I saw you today campaigning in Orange Walk Central. It is less than three weeks to an election, you should be focusing all your energy on the north.
Gaspar Vega,
"No Jules I am not overconfident. if you check at my villages, last night I left San Luis at midnight. So far I am certain that I don't have any problems in my villages. I am convinced that I am working hard but not to win the elections but to see how big the margin will be."
And a lot of the difference between the two candidates - according to Baeza is background.
Servulo Baeza,
"I can go to anybody's house really and I can understand the issues. Anybody can tell me about planting cane, cutting cane, or doing milpa or planting corn and I've been there, done that. I grew up doing those things with my father. I hope Mr. Vega can talk about those things too."
But Vega says if it's about work - he's good for that.
Gaspar Vega,
"I believe that we should work until the last vote is being counted, not cast because I hear different stories about what has happened in the past if the count is so close. So we have to ensure that even when we are counting the votes, we have people capable and that are aware of all these things and we can stop until then. When they announce the winner, who the winner is, then we can relax."
And until then both these candidates will be very busy in a division that covers a large area and includes 9 villages.
In the days leading up to the election, we'll have more stories from the campaign trail.
