A poll released last week by spear predicted that the UDP will win the next general elections. In that poll, the UDP led nationally by 8 points and was ahead of the PUP in 4 out of the 6 districts with significant leads in Orange Walk and Stann Creek. And while SPEAR has its critics in the PUP - it also has its track record: it accurately predicted the outcome of the 2006 municipal election within three points. But now a new poll released by two educators challenges and contradicts that SPEAR finding.
It has the PUP ahead in 4 districts and the UDP trailing the PUP nationally. The poll was conducted independently by college professors Dr. Joe Iyo and Marion Cayetano. Prospective voters were asked one question but the results left many more questions. Keith Swift has the results.
Keith Swift Reporting,
Between Saturday and Sunday more than a thousand prospective voters were given a paper just like this one - and they were asked to tick off the party they will vote for. Based on those - researcher Dr. Joseph Iyo says the results of election is too close to call.
Dr. Joseph Iyo, Researcher
"At the end of the day we had only 5% difference between UDP and PUP with PUP higher than UDP by 5% and that is the margin of error so our own conclusion from a scientific point of view is that it is too close to call."
Too close to call but according to Iyo's poll, the PUP is ahead of the UDP in the Orange Walk, Belize, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. In Orange Walk and Belize - the PUP is ahead by 10%. The UDP is only up in the Corozal and Cayo Districts.
Iyo says the results differ from the spear poll because he used what is called accidental sampling. Between 33 and 40 voters from each constituency were polled. And instead of using phones, Iyo says they used secret ballots. The results from constituencies were aggregated into districts.
Dr. Joseph Iyo,
"It was secret confidential ballots. Some of them designed shoe boxes, some of them carton boxer and they went there introducing themselves, telling
them they are lecturers from the University of Belize and Galen and if they will participate and we had very good response in all the districts except, Corozal Town and the immediate environs. We had reluctance in Belmopan, and Cayo South."
Because voters answered only one question - Iyo says there is little room for analysis. But Iyo - who is a professor at the University of Belize - says the numbers don't lie.
Dr. Joseph Iyo,
"The poll is giving all kinds of scenarios that defy conventional logic in Belize and that is what for us was the shock so we are excited to see how it will play out."
And though he has worked closely with government in the past- Dr. Iyo says he paid for the poll and is adamant that the results haven't been manipulated.
Dr. Joseph Iyo,
"I would have probably given PUP the same margin that SPEAR gave UDP if I was commissioned by the PUP to do it - I would give them that. Everybody Belize to Corozal is PUP, why would I give it to UDP? And you have the details - you can see how it is cast. I did not manipulate that, I'll be honest with you."
Keith Swift,
The ACB paid for the spear poll. Who paid for yours?
Dr. Joseph Iyo,
"I paid myself. I do all my studies by myself with Marion Cayetano."
Keith Swift,
Are you trying to influence the outcome of the election?
Dr. Joseph Iyo,
"I wish I could but I think people are smarter than that. Don't you think so? Why would they want me to influence them how they vote? If somebody has made their decision, most of the people actually insisted they wanted to write their name on the paper. So we have people who are very clear about what they want to do. So why I would want to go and influence that, I find that strange and I wish I had that power to influence people to vote the way they would."
We stress that Dr. Iyo and Marion Cayetano conducted the poll independent of the schools they are affiliated with. And viewing some of the divisional breakdown - some would say it's also independent of conventional wisdom. The poll says the PUP will lose Albert; that's right it says Tom Morisson will beat Mark Espat, and in Mesopotamia it says Austin Waight will beat Michael Finnegan. We cite those results because those are considered to be among the safest seats for both parties.
Overall the poll shows the UDP winning 10 seats, the PUP 19, and tied in two divisions. And if you are wondering where are the third party and independent candidates in all this? Well nationally the National Reform Party got 3.5% and the VIP 2.53%. Dr. Iyo says they plan to conduct another poll before the election.We should note that the UDP has substantially criticized the poll which it says was being directly influenced and in fact instrumentalized by the PUP's public relations arm.
