Tomorrow, the UDP will have a virtual meeting of its National Party Council to make a final decision on the fate of John Saldivar, as a political candidate.
On December second, a Special Committee set up to decide his fate voted four to three, quote, "that it is in the best interest of the Party that Mr Saldivar's candidacy be disallowed is with immediate effect."
With that he was forced to immediately relinquish his positions as interim Caretaker for Belmopan and Western Regional Leader.
But he appealed to the National Party Council, and so he goes before that second highest decision making body of his party tomorrow to see how much pull Big John still has.
In this commentary, Jules Vasquez says the stakes are highest for his party leader Shyne Barrow:
Tomorrow when the 100 plus members of the UDP National Party Council have a virtual meeting to decide, finally, the fate of John Saldivar, they will either vote yes to uphold the Special Committee's Decision to disallow his candidacy, or no if they oppose the decision of the special committee.
In terms of raw political calculus it should be a straightforward enough decision - but what is on the line here is the much bigger question of which personality can garner the greatest support in the UDP.
As the head of the Caucus for Change - which Saldivar has boasted at various points in time - represents anywhere from 19 to 21 constituencies - Saldivar's group has been both king-maker and king-breaker.
They are the ones who led the charge to recall Patrick Faber in January of 2021, saying at that time of his personal misconduct, quote, "we believe that the image portrayed and signal sent by this behavior and the fact that it is one more in a slew of similar indiscretions, warrants serious action by our Party." And while they couldn't successfully recall Faber - more than 50% of the delegates voted against him. It weakened the leader enough that when another personal indiscretion emerged - he was forced to step down.
And that caucus is also the one that endorsed Shyne Barrow in his leadership bid in January - 7 months later, he emerged as leader, if only by the slightest of margins.
And tomorrow the members of that caucus may decide to stand by their leader, John Saldivar or abandon him. The vote will also demonstrate whether Leader Barrow or Saldivar has the true loyalty of the party's decision makers.
It's a true test for Barrow, and - sensing that perhaps as a personality that commands loyalty - he is on the weaker leg - he has exhorted his members to choose not based on personalities, but in the party's interests:
Shyne Barrow, UDP Leader
"It is very sophomoric to see this situation in terms of any individual confrontation. This is really about the UDP. It is too much of a cross to carry, too much of a burden to carry in order for us to form the next government."
So, tonight, for the UDP the glowing red cubes of chance and change are suspended in mid air - while for Saldivar, it's between politics, and his side-gig, pibil making - he announced today that he's gone regional.
We'll post the outcome of the NPC meeting on our Facebook page as soon as it is known tomorrow.
The last pivotal vote for the NPC was in January of 2022 - when it decided on whether Patrick Faber had truly resigned - and in that case, the margin was a single vote.
