"The rate of GDP growth for 2024 was 8.2%" - if you had a dollar every time the Prime Minister said that - you might have a stack of bills as high as the sky! Indeed, the strong GDP growth is a cornerstone of the Briceno administration's boasts. In fact, in the budget speech in May here's how the PM proudly put it:
John Briceno, Prime Minister
"In 2024, according to recently published IMF data, Belize had the highest GDP growth rate in the Western Hemisphere, at 8.2 percent, second only to the oil exporting nation of Guyana."
And, indeed, the IMF repeated that figure in its Article Four review with Belize just 9 days ago.
But, today, in its recap of the GDP for 2024, the Statistical Institute of Belize turned all of that GDP boasting into fake news.
They gave the final revised GDP figure for 2024, and it's not 8.2%; it's 3.5% - decent, but surely not the second highest in the western hemisphere.
Jacqueline Sabal of the SIB's Economic Statistics Department explained how that over 8% projection of 2024's GDP ended up at less than half of that number:
Jacqueline Sabal, Manager - Economic Statistics Dept.
"It is important to note that the annual GDP growth rate for 2024 of 3.5% differs from the estimated 8% derived from the quarterly GDP figures. This discrepancy is due to the fact that the annual GDP is based on a more comprehensive data set."
Jules Vasquez
"What accounts for the dramatic revision between 8.1% and 3.5%? If you had to attribute it to one thing?"
Jacqueline Sabal, Manager - Economic Statistics Dept.
"When we get annual data, or when we compile annual GDP and we get a lot of revised numbers, then we also have to revise as well."
"We also have a more comprehensive data set at that time. For the quarterly, we only use volume indicators. When the annual comes around, we have more access to financial reports, revenue data, etc."
And that more complete end of year data showed strong performance form the primary or what you might call the agricultural sector:
Jacqueline Sabal, Manager - Economic Statistics Dept.
"Throughout the year, all three sectors recorded notable growth. The primary sector grew by 2.8%, mainly due to recovery from unfavorable weather conditions experienced in the previous year. The secondary sector was up by 3.3%, due to improved performance across all secondary sector industries, coupled with the introduction of a local cement-producing factory."
"While the tertiary sector reported the most significant growth of 4.6%, and this was the result of increases mainly in accommodation and food services."
