It will go down in history as the single most turbulent day in Belize's political history: 7 Ministers of Government, including the Deputy Prime Minister, resigned their Cabinet posts today. The letter that was delivered to the Prime Minister at 3:00 p.m. today signed by all 7, including Deputy Prime Minister Hon. John Briceno, Works Minister Hon. Jose Coye, Tourism Minister Hon. Mark Espat, Trade Minister Hon. Eamon Courtenay, Housing Minister Hon. Cordel Hyde, Agriculture Minister Hon. Servulo Baeza, and Foreign Minister Hon. Godfrey Smith. The extremely terse letter says: "in the best interest of the nation and [arty, we feel obliged to submit our resignation effective immediately to allow you the latitude to exercise your best judgement in the appointment of a new Cabinet." That's it, 36 words that have changed everything and plunged the Musa administration into a crisis. How will Prime Minister Musa deal with it? Well presently the Prime Minister is in Belmopan and we are told he just returned to his office after going to get something to eat. His Cabinet Secretary has given the only statement, and here that is.
Robert Leslie, Cabinet Secretary
“Today, August 16, 2004, the Prime Minister received the resignations of seven members of Cabinet. These resignations will not affect the proper functioning of the Government as the Prime Minister retains oversight responsibility for the Ministries involved. I have already informed the Chief Executive Officers concerned in my capacity as Cabinet Secretary that in these circumstances they are directly responsible to the Prime Minister, and no one else, for the management of their ministries.”
“The Ministers who submitted their resignations broke with Cabinet protocol by making their disagreements public and making public demands on the Prime Minister. The proper procedure would have been to resign first. By submitting their resignations in writing, they have now acted appropriately and in the best interest of the nation. This will allow the Prime Minister the opportunity to advise His Excellency the Governor General to appoint a new Cabinet. The Prime Minister will announce the names of the new Cabinet at an appropriate.”
That was Cabinet Secretary Bobby Leslie a few moments ago via telephone. But how did it come to this? Well it was a very eventful weekend, full of political jostling and that gave way to a day where developments came at lightspeed. Our News Director Jules Vasquez has been following it all and he is in studio with me for analysis. Jules, can you pick it up where we left it off on Friday when Finance Minister Hon. Ralph Fonseca gave you a compelling interview_ (See Ralph Fonseca Speaks) which, as I understand it, set things off.
Jules Vasquez, News Director
Well Indira after that meeting it became clear that what the G7 thought would be a long short war, would in fact be a short war. Simply put they interpreted Fonseca's apparently cautious but often aggressive remarks to mean two things: that he would fight, and that he would be so, as always, with Prime Minister Said Musa and his allies.
Why did they reach this conclusion and how did that conclusion affect what happened?
Jules Vasquez,
Well the attacks Fonseca made on Mark Espat and Eamon Courtenay made it clear that he was swiping at them considered the most resolved and engaged of the G7. Seeing that was one thing. But it was quite another when Fonseca lied when he said that everyone had written a letter of resignation when they swore in. Which they claim is a lie, but one they believe the Prime Minister if pressed would back him up on. They took that to mean they were working as a group. Proof of that came this weekend when the Prime Minister working from his base at his home used a number of emissaries to reach out to his 21 parliamentarians, including members of the G7. It became clear that both he and Fonseca were doing this in tandem. See the G7 decided that if they were to move they had to do so immediately because it's clear to them that Musa and Fonseca were trying to consolidate their power base, and that PM Musa would not strip Ralph Fonseca.
But Jules if I can get you to back up just a bit, we had heard that the G7 had hoped to include others in this at least one more representative from Orange Walk which would have made all the difference by giving the group the weight of one more parliamentarian.
Jules Vasquez,
Yes Indira you're right, the group had briefly secured the support or Ismael Cal from Orange Walk South. Gaining him on Friday and subsequently losing him had a most consequential effect. That's because he would have given them the power of 7 representatives, which joined to the UDP's 8 could have forced a vote of no confidence. That is they could have gone to the Governor General as a unified 15 and told him that we have a majority of the 29, and want you to dissolve the House and call new elections. Or failing that they could have waited until the next House sitting in September and done the same.
But without Cal, they only have 6 representatives, which added to the UDP's 8, make it interesting but not decisive?
Jules Vasquez,
Precisely Indira and that's why the Musa machine moved with such alacrity this weekend after it picked up Cal sometime on Saturday afternoon. There were endless sessions of meetings held at the Prime Minister's house, and just so, there were smaller sessions at the highway homes of Ministers Mark Espat and Eamon Courtenay. And yesterday afternoon the Deputy Prime Minister John Briceno who had just returned from vacation met with the G7 at Courtenay's home and then went to the Prime Minister's home for a meeting. And then, last night, the Group of 7 was to meet with the Prime Minister, but we are told he refused that. He had the luxury of refusal because he knew what he had in the bag, a bag whose contents which was laid plain for everyone to see today.
If I can go through those quite quickly Jules; this morning starting at about 10, the statements of support started to come out. There are a total of 4 statements covering 12 representatives including Ismael Cal, and 5 ministers. The statements give unequivocal support for Prime Minister Musa and by extension Ralph Fonseca. Jules what was the effect of those statements?
Jules Vasquez,
Well the effect of this is that it isolated the 7 completely and made them realize that Musa and Fonseca were working for their mutual preservation, and that to a large extent that succeeded. And that left the G7 with no other choice but to resign. And that's what they did.
So what will they do next, what is their strategy?
Jules Vasquez,
Well, they want to fight and the Leader of the Opposition who in tandem with them makes 14; he had interesting views in an interview that because of time we could not edit here it is.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“It is in my view a wounding blow for the PUP, a crippling blow for the PUP, and in fact a fatal blow for the PUP as government; this current administration. Indeed so convinced am I of this that I am immediately issuing a call for fresh elections.”
Jules Vasquez,
There are six members of the parliament here, would it not be expeditious for you to reach out to them along with your 8 and have an interesting 14? Although you can’t cross the floor, that is constitutionally barred, but if you 14 unite it’s almost one man less than half.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“Well clearly the motivation for the 7, including the 6 that are in the House, to do what they did is a matter with which we can not only sympathize but to some extent identify. These people say that it is a question of principle, it is a principle of their concern for the larger national interest of this country. It’s turned out not just to be talk, they may have been outmaneuvered, but in any event they have proven that they were prepared to make the ultimate political sacrifice and in that kind of context of course we must be willing to talk to them. I wouldn’t go further than that at this stage.”
Jules Vasquez,
In terms of obviously you have called for the resignation of the Prime Minister and the minister of Finance on various occasions before and now you will call for new elections. It seems that unless he is bound to the Prime Minister will not listen to the advice of the Leader of the Opposition. So you are really making a futile call.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“It can’t be futile Jules in the context of what has happened. It might not succeed in the immediate term but it has to be a valid call it has to be a call that will be seen by the populace as legitimate because more than half of this man’s Cabinet has resigned. These are senior Ministers including the Deputy Prime Minister of the country and representing the cream of the PUP. In any other mature parliamentary democracy no Prime Minister will try and remain in office after suffering this kind of mass revolt, this kind of mass desertion. So if this particular Prime Minister doesn’t heed this particular Opposition Leader’s call it won’t be the fault of the opposition leader, it will be the fault of the Prime Minister. It will demonstrate how stunted and dwarfed his understanding of the democratic process is and in the end he will look bad. So we are, given the combination of circumstances, obliged to make the call. We think that in the context of what has happened it is our duty to make the call. And we know that as I said if you have regard to parliamentary principle and parliamentary conventions as opposed to the strict letter of our constitution, it is a call that anywhere else would be heeded. And it is a call that anywhere else would not even have to be made because the Prime Minister in any other parliamentary democracy; Canada, India, the UK, would in fact after a development of this nature would not have to be pushed, he would jump.”
Jules Vasquez,
How do you see this unfolding in the next few days in terms of things have changed so quickly on Thursday you thought it was only a trial or some of extortion or leveraging but now it is one of the most serious irrevocable political maneuvers ever. What do you see happening in the next few days?
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“Immediately of course the Prime Minister will dig in his heels. The expression of support that were wrung from his backbenchers, those who are clearly interested now in self-promotion and self-preservation, give a clear indication of this. He will try to, and no doubt succeed in the short term, form a new Cabinet from the wreckage of what has occurred. So that is the immediate future but remember that all this was or is as a result of a process that started with the Social Security issue; something Channel 7 in particular would know a great deal about. That issue has not gone away and if anything this development will heighten the pressure with respect to that issue. The various calls that have gone out for the issue to be addressed will of course now have to go unheeded because the man most at the center or the two men, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance, most at the center of that particular issue have in fact closed ranks, circled the wagons, and conspired to crush descent even within their own party. The public outcry will increase, the UDP sponsored demonstration will be larger than ever, the momentum assisted by today’s development is going to be unstoppable and I therefore have to feel that sooner rather than later the Prime Minister will be obliged to call elections. Not immediately, not immediately agreed but sooner rather than later.”
Jules Vasquez,
Are you saying we are on the edge of on the precipice of instability of political instability?
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“Well we are certainly on the edge of financial instability. We are on the edge therefore of political instability; financial instability breeds political instability and when that financial instability has been punctuated in the way it has been by the resignation of more than half the Cabinet it can’t take too much imagination to figure out what is likely to happen, to figure out what might well prove inevitable.”
So what's next Jules?
Jules Vasquez,
Well tomorrow the G7 will make a statement sometime in the morning and the Prime Minister will announce his new cabinet appointments. Now in his statement played earlier the Cab Sec will only say at an appropriate time but it is believed to be a matter of urgency and the best information suggests that the PM is back at his office working on that. The Permanent Secretaries or the CEOs sorry have been told to only report to him so those are the developments we are looking at for tomorrow. Finally a public statement from the G7 and the PM making new appointments to his Cabinet which will very interesting because the Leader of the Opposition said it in that interview that the people or his wisdom interprets it that the people who will be given ministries are those who in these statements swore loyalty to the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance so those people will be now rewarded one assumes with seven vacant ministries. And that is interesting because your 7 best workers just resigned and if you look at these ministers who resigned, these are the faces that got Said Musa elected. These are the faces that triumphed over Florencio Marin in 1996 when the Prime Minister challenged Florencio Marin. Why the Prime Minister was able to win was because he had the young faces like Jorge Espat who has resigned, Mark Espat, Eamon Courtenay, and Godfrey Smith. Florencio Marin was seen as having the old PUP with Ted Aranda and Valdemar Castillo and those types of persons. So now the PUP of new is no longer, and there are rumors totally unconfirmed but there are rumors that Florencio Marin will be brought back up as Deputy Prime Minister. I mean the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned that is like the vice-president, he is second in charge when it comes the to head of government. So all these old faces will be brought back and it’s a clearly demoralized profile of a Cabinet because if you watch these guys that resigned Cordel Hyde, Mark Espat, and Godfrey Smith, and Servulo Baeza and John Briceno they have won by some of the largest margins. Again if you watch the ones in the city the southside is completely balkanized. The Prime Minister has no support south of the swing bridge because it is either a UDP representative or a non-supporting PUP representative being that Albert and Lake Independence have now resigned from the Cabinet. So the profile of things have changed greatly in the Cabinet and it’s really difficult to overstate the history of this, it’s as big as it gets in terms of political developments.
Indications from the G7 is that they will rally and try and changes from in Cabinet but how will they do that if they are not in Cabinet?
Jules Vasquez,
I have no idea. I don’t know what they plan to do and I don’t know what came before this and made them make the decision but the fact of this is that they have 23,000 people, they say in their letter to the PM, who they represent. And hey 23,000 is a tenth of the full population and a 1/5 or 1/6 of the voting population so you have a large platform from which to operate but you don’t have any power so it will be interesting to see what they do next.
You think it was a premature move? What would they have lost if they had waited out the three weeks?
Jules Vasquez,
I don’t know Indira clearly I think that the move just on the face of it, it looks rash, it looks as if you could have waited and you could have been more cautious however the point of it is that they felt that Said Musa had lied to them. That’s what they felt at the end of the day that he had bamboozled them and that he had led them astray. They really felt that and so that’s why they decided to not wait the three weeks because it was clear to them that they had been had and that he was not going to change Ralph. Whether he would have or not will now never be known. But they say the outward evidence is he and Ralph which is the longest history of inseparability in modern politics, I think you have to go back to George Price and Lindy Rogers, but him and Ralph are inseparable they believe and they think the actions on the weekend solidified that and waiting until the end of the month would have only shamed them, that is what they deduced. They have information that I don’t have and they have evidence that I don’t have but they believe that at the end of the month nothing would have happened so it is best to have done it now and that is where we are at tonight.