Prime Minister John Briceno will present his first full budget tomorrow morning in Belmopan - and, as we've been reporting, it will include a 10% cut in salaries for public officers and a freeze on increments.
That's after weeks of negotiations and face to face talks with the joint unions where both sides could not reach a compromise.
But, history tells us that governments of the day always have to find a way to compromise with the unions - or feel the brunt of industrial action and worse.
But, not this time. And what's different? Well, two things: first, those negotiations usually happen at the end or middle of a term in office; this time it's happening with a new government - just swept into office with a nearly unprecedented mandate in successive elections. Second, it's also a government that's facing historic crises of enormous debt and sizeable revenue shortfalls and a massive deficit - basically a government that has to take drastic corrective measures to keep the economy afloat and to keep the IMF at bay.
And, basically, with the unions now digging in their heels and talking about industrial action the PUP feels like, well, let's see who has the popular support. That's what's driving a surprising advertising campaign which is taking on the unions and publicly making the case against them as self-serving and unwilling to sacrifice.
It's the first time we've seen a political party be so bold and Jules Vasquez looks at the history of government clashes with the unions to find context the unusual contours of the current dispute:
The unions - especially the Teachers Union made their name when they went head-to-head with the Musa Administration in 2005.
They didn't bring down his government, but their actions - in concert with the UDP and other civil society actors - so weakened the Musa administration that three years later - the once proud PUP was taken to its worst defeat in its history.
In 2016, the teacher unions brought the then UDP government to its knees with an 11-day strike when the government had to beg them to return to the classroom:
Hon. Michael Finnegan - Mesop. Representative "This is why we come here today, Tracy and I as representative to appeal to the teachers, the BNTU to let us resolve this matter, let us come back again to the table with the prime minister, let us work out this situation and let our children get back into school."
They did, but on their terms and in their time, with only modest triumphalism:
Hon. Elena Smith, President, BNTU "For 11 long days we fought for betterment for our country and people. Good governance was the pillar on which we stood and on which we will continue to stand. We were able to achieve what no other group has achieved and that alone is a great achievement that we should all be proud of."
But now, it's the popular PUP that's feeling itself - in an absolute first, the ruling party has - with a series of three new ads gone on an offensive against the unions - including the teachers who can't walk out of the classroom this time:
"The unions led by the PSU and APSSM have rejected government's proposals to fix the economy. They don't care about Belize, they have nothing to lose, ask them, they never stood against corruption but now they refuse to help fix the damage caused by the corruption. Public officers have taken no pay cuts even when they work from home. Teachers took no pay cuts, even though schools are closed. Nobody loves a pay cut; nobody is happy about it but some understood and some chose not to. We are sorry that the union leaders have chosen this time to showboat and to pretend that they are in charge, it is a bad decision and a selfish one. The unions have refused to accept the pay cut, union leaders have refused to listen, apparently, they prefer retrenchment to pay cuts. Remember, they have absolutely nothing to lose, they are definitely not interested in fixing the economy or about protecting public officers for the long term. Watch them carefully and realise what they stand for."
It's a popular government - on the crest of two huge victories at the polls - for the first time - going toe to toe with the labour unions.
Last night the Minister of Education was careful to distance himself from it:
Jules Vasquez "Why then that ad? Isn't that ad an attack on the unions which will undermine any goodwill and confidence that you all have built up between them.
Hon. Francis Fonseca - Minister of Education & Culture "Yeah well, again as I said I saw the ad for the first time on my way over here, I don't know who produced the ad."
Jules Vasquez "But it's a PUP ad, Minister."
Hon. Francis Fonseca "Yes, but I don't know who produced it within the pup but again it's not something I would do."
But his party did do it and it will be interesting to see how the unions will react - and who can garner more popular support.
