Last Friday, we told you about the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change known as the IPCC. That's the UN body that is responsible for providing objective scientific information to better understand climate change.
In the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change, this authoritative body of scientists has declared that global changes in climate over the last 200 plus years are caused by human activity - end of story.
The experts at the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre - or 5Cs for short - say that this 6th Assessment is perhaps the most important and consequential report published by this organization in its 33-year history.
The report highlights that global warming caused by the mass emissions of Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, is quickly reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius when compared to pre-industrial levels.
If that happens, the world's climate will continue to deteriorate and there will be a staggering increase in the heat waves, droughts, stronger storms, and sea-level rise.
The problem is that back in December 2015, 196 countries and territories of the world signed on to the Paris Agreement. That was a historic breakthrough for climate change. It was the first legally binding treaty on the issue in which the parties agreed to take action to decrease their greenhouse emissions.
But, according to the Executive Director of the 5Cs, the largest nations that have the biggest carbon footprint haven't kept up with their obligations to the treaty. In an extended, virtual press conference on Monday, Dr. Colin Young put the IPCC's report into context:
Dr. Colin Young - Executive Director, CCCCC
"Five years after Paris, the world has not delivered on the promise of Paris. Rather, we're going in the wrong direction. Global greenhouse gases are increasing, rather than decreasing. And obviously, temperatures are increasing. 5 years later, the nationally determined contributions, those pledges, and targets set by nations globally, to reduce emissions to keep temperature goals within reach have reached, have the world on a trajectory to reach 3 degrees by 2100. And as we just read in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, to reach 1.5 degrees within 20 years, even under the lowest emissions scenario. 5 years later, developed countries have not delivered the 100 US Billion Dollars per year they promised in Paris, rather, access to finance has become more challenging, and the bureaucracy to access has become even more difficult to navigate, slowing, even more, the trickle of climate finance, and thus our ability to adapt to climate change. 5 years later, and we're still not seeing the type of climate ambition from the biggest emitters, those in the G-7 and G-20, that is necessary to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Actions speak louder than words, and right now, bold climate actions and bold commitments are not the scales they need to be, nor do they reflect the urgency that is required to keep the 1.5 degree goal within reach."
During Last month's Climate Outlook Forum, an expert from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, took a close look at last year's climate, which was a year of extremes for the Caribbean. It began with the ending of an intense, multi-year drought, then floods in August, and then the very active and devastating hurricane season.
During Monday's press conference, Dr. Young said that the recently released IPCC report simply confirms what residents of the Caribbean have been experiencing over the last 5 years:
Dr. Colin Young - Executive Director, CCCCC
"Five years later, the Caribbean is even more vulnerable to climate change than in 2015. We've always been vulnerable to climate change. Since 1950, over 324 natural disasters have struck the Caribbean, killing over 250,000 people and affecting more than 24 million. Between 1970 and 2020, 91.5% of Caribbean disasters are climate change-related: hurricanes, floods, droughts, for example, the combined losses and damage from hurricanes of over 137 billion US dollars. Between 2010 and 2020, the region has been impacted by over 150 disasters that directly impact over 22 million people. Today, the Caribbean, on average, experiences significant events, these are events that cause losses of 20% of GDP or more, per year. Annually, the region suffers losses the equivalent of 2 to 3 % of its enter GDP. For many of our countries, the annual losses from climate-related disasters exceed the GDP growth of our countries. The 5Cs, in the regional framework, concluded that, and I quote, 'Without resilience building through effective adaptation, damages from hurricanes, losses from the declines in tourism and damages to infrastructure, due to sea-level rise are projected to total 22 billion US dollars per year by 2050, and 46 billion annually by 2100, representing between 10 and 22% of Caribbean GDP respectively. These numbers are hardly surprising when one considers that almost 60% of the Caribbean's GDP is derived from sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and natural resource-based industries that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. It is because of this context that our leaders continue to make the point that climate change for us in the Caribbean is an existential threat. The Caribbean, in the words of the Prime Minister of Dominica, is on the frontline of the war on climate change, a war that we are on pace to lose, and lose badly unless the world significantly ramps up its climate ambition. The findings confirm what we have been experiencing and telling the world. Year after year, we see the number and severity of climate hazards increasing. Year after year, we see and experience more frequent and severe droughts. Year after year, we see and experience more frequent and intense heavy downpours. Year after year, we bear witness to increased coastal erosion and the losses of our beaches. Year after year, we feel the hotter days and nighttime temperatures and experience debilitating heatwaves. And year after year, we hear of the hurricane seasons that are above average, and that are packed with Cat. 4 and 5 hurricanes."
According to Dr. Young, this decade from 2020 to 2030 is the last chance that the world has to keep global temperatures at or below 1.5 degrees celsius, and the window is closing very fast. In order to meet that deadline, it is estimated that countries must reduce global emissions of carbon into the earth's atmosphere by 45% by 2030.
So, if the major developed nations are mostly responsible for the majority of these CO2 emissions, what can the CARICOM nations do to nudge them to make the right decisions to meet that ambitious goal?
We asked Dr. Young about that and he said that hopefully, world leaders are paying keen attention to how climate change and global warming is devastating their own populations:
Dr. Colin Young - Executive Director, CCCCC
"I think one of the things that is very clear, and perhaps for the first time is that the wealthy countries, the developed countries, are now witnessing, seeing, and feeling some of the very same impacts that we in the Caribbean have been feeling for decades. You only have to look at the international media to see the forest fires in Greece, the flooding that killed hundreds of people in Germany, the heat waves that are killing people all over the world, the impact that climate change is having on the United States of America, and the sea level rise that is starting to inundate some of these wealthy countries. That frequency, that - I'm hoping will create the kind of urgency because now the impacts are no longer just for those people across the world. The impacts are being seen, felt, and experienced by their very own populations and costing a huge amount of money. So, I'm hoping that his kind of global impact will start to wake up the political leaders to muster the kind of political will that is necessary not only to help those of us in this part of the world but to help to make themselves more resilient to climate change. Unless they do that, it's not just us that will be impacted anymore. This is happening to everyone."
