The November 11th general elections may already seem a distant memory - but, trust us when we say, that statisticians will be looking at those results for years. It's one of the biggest swings ever - and it saw the UDP received a historically low number of votes.
The red party was wiped out - and we've been looking at the numbers. Jules Vasquez notes the hugest swings in Belize City:
It's a blue nation - with only a few spots of red, and statistically, the 2020 general election was the biggest blowout in Belize's post independent history - more even than 1998 when the UDP lost 26 - 3.
The 26-5 margin in seats for the PUP is a direct reversal of the 2008 election
The 26-5 margin in seats for the PUP is a direct reversal of the 2008 election when the UDP won a landslide, except this one is worse for the loser.
The 26-5 margin in seats for the PUP is a direct reversal of the 2008 election
In 2020, for only the second time in post independence history, a major mass party has failed to get 40% of the vote.
And the 38% of the vote which the UDP got is the lowest in post independence history,
The 26-5 margin in seats for the PUP is a direct reversal of the 2008 election and 12 percentage points less than they did in 2015.
It's also fractions of a percentage point less than the biggest swing in history - which was the PUP between 2003 and 2008..mov
It's also fractions of a percentage point less than the biggest swing in history - which was the PUP between 2003 and 2008.
But when that happened, the outcome was preceded by riots and chaos in the street - this time, one very large PUP demonstration in February, and then COVID, and then, silence…until 82% of voters came out on election day to quietly do their thing and overwhelmingly reject the UDP.
Their support for the PUP was overwhelming and historic.
The blue side gained ground in every single division - except Fort George - where 69% of the voters supported Said Musa in 2015, but only 63% supported his son Henry Charles Usher in 2019.
In other areas there were historic gains for the PUP - we'll look at Belize City tonight.
In Pickstock, the PUP got 78% of the vote - a staggering increase in support of 33% - compared to 2015, when the blue candidate got 45% of the vote.
In Queen's Square, though the PUP candidate lost - Allan Pollard made a 25% gain for the PUP going from 17% to 42%. A major slippage for the UDP in what is statistically its most dominant seat in the country.
Similarly in Mesop, the candidate, Dr Candice Pitts lost, but gained 23% percentage points in support - leaving Shyne Barrow with almost one third less support than his Uncle Michael Finnegan enjoyed.
In Lake I - the PUP's Cordel Hyde gained 18 percentage points - significant, but, what's really noteworthy is that in doing so, he got almost 90% of the vote, and left his UDP opponent Dianne Finnegan with less than 10% of the vote, perhaps a record low for a major mass party candidate.
The UDP lost ground in 5 of the 6 seats that it held - but least so in Collett, where party leader Patrick Faber lost only 4% percentage points in support between 2015 and 2020.
This chart shows the historic patterns of voter support for each major mass party - with the UDP now in a deep downswing, but, the chart always evens out - for the PUP it took 12 years. How long will it take the UDP?
We thank TBSL for use of their graphics.
On Monday, we'll look at the sizeable swings against the UDP in Belize Rural and Orange Walk.
